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Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Bad Hair Days for Gold and Silver

In Sept of this season 2011, Ben Bernanke, Seat of the Govt Source Panel of Governors, proven that he is the individual most highly effective man on the planet. In the occasional conference of the Govt Reserve's Govt Open Industry Panel on Sept 21-22, in which the nation's all important financial plan is set, Ben shifted his oral cavity, conditions came out, and the marketplaces around the planet blew up. Or nearly so. The ticker footage of the inventory and financial commitment and connection marketplaces still circulation, but a sea modify has took place. The record book of this world has had a temporary marking placed... a splitting range demarcating the planet the way it was before Ben's oral cavity shifted, and way it is after his conditions came out. And in my view, the eventful conditions were not the ones the discussing delivers on the economical programs provided transfer to. It was one individual phrase Ben spoken that really did it. Before we replay that phrase, it may be employed to first offer some viewpoint by support up a bit.

Myself, I am a viewer, an daily United states, seated in the bleachers, watching the experience called The Struggling International Financial program open up, and I'm enjoying the referees create their calling. I listen to the experts evaluate the experience. They dispute among themselves. They narrow activities through their own personal viewpoint of how the planet performs. I pay attention and attempt to identify the truth tellers in the team. The ones free of increased shaded eyeglasses and with no axes to smash. I search for the true umpires of statement (I just calling 'em prefers I recognizes 'em). And in doing so... the truth exposed itself. It's easy. By actual arithmetic The united states, and many other nations, have obtained more money than can ever be compensated returning. The united states has been spending more then she requires in for way a lengthy time now. To create up the difference the nation has obtained the money. To convenience the pain of funding the increasing financial debt, prices have been kept synthetically low and the US money has been considerably properly diluted by increasing the money provide quicker than the economy. Such a activity title cannot be performed consistently however, and at this factor it seems we are somewhere in the 4th one fourth. The endgame techniques.

With that in mind, in 2004 I bought a few silver coins to prevent what seemed an not sure upcoming. Gold had approximately more than doubled to $400 an ounces at enough time from its multi-year levels. In mid 2008, soon after the failure of financial commitment bank Keep Stearns, with gold at $800 oz, and myself being a instructor and author by partially business, I had written an article eligible The Slim Red White and Red Line to notify visitors perhaps too fast paced residing their life to take observe of how risky the economical state had become and that problems was occurring. Avarice, data file corruption error, and the resulting overleveraging in danger the fundamentals of the economy, and I suggested a few aspects that one might do to reduce what showed up to be an unavoidable collision. Here is the record from that content.

Lighten up on investments (stocks and bonds)

Buy gold and silver

Buy food

Become a farmer

Stock up on the basics

Keep some money on hand

Take some protection precautions

Buy a super-high gas usage automobile (electric car, multiple, power bike, etc.)

Conduct a "disaster determination test"

The viewpoint that created the above record was/is easy. The report centered economical world we increased up with is beginning tocrumble. Document foreign exchange, and all aspects depending on foreign exchange, such as inventory marketplaces, financial commitment marketplaces, connection marketplaces, et al. are only value the believe in we put in them. The program performs provided that everyone trusts that the value of the little items of report we exchange with each other for products or services will have a somewhat foreseen value. On a relevant observe, we also believe in that if we put our money into the report centered financial commitment world, the details we are given about the automobile of choice is precise and honest.

But actually, believe in in most report foreign exchange around the planet has evaporated along with the buying energy of said foreign exchange. A money just doesn't buy what it used to. And on that mentioned relevant observe, believe in in the economical state was significantly evaporated in 2008 when it was found that expected A-A-A ranked home loan centered financial commitment automobiles (derivatives) available to traders across the planet became depending on bogus financial loans. Consequently, traders, retirement residing resources, money market and secure resources, and other unaware banking organizations all over the planet took an in-depth hit. The report was proven nearly useless and the tax payer was requested compelled to help out a whole lot of organizations. For these reasons and more believe in in all aspects report has been significantly decreased.

In 2010, with gold up to $1200 oz, a quickly increasing currency markets, and a apparently recuperating economy, I had written a adhere to up content eligible If The Future's So Shiny How Come I Don't Need Colors, which suggested that despite looks, nothing had modified, and that we were actually still going into an financial problems so provide it would eventually be classified a depressive disorders. The content suggested that money, temporary US government ties, gold/silver gold, and other tangible items might be the most secure shop of success at this time.

As it happens, a large amount of the guidance I had been distilling and moving on has proven beneficial. As prices have decreased ties have obtained in value, and gold and silver silver coins are considerably greater. Cash however is value a bit less in general. For the guidance imparted I take no credit ratings except perhaps to have been in a position to arrange into understandable structure what seemed to be an apparent set of styles that were found upon separating the layer to expose the decrepit old man behind the face of Oz. Significance, the popular media is not your friend. You have to dig for the truth.

So here we are now in the latter half of 2011, a considerable Govt Source conference under our devices, blowing up up a bit, a fresh mini-crash in the inventory marketplaces around the planet, and money ducking seriously into the protection of the connection market in desires of getting secure from the increasing issues of the economical world. On top of that we have a world working out an limitless sequence of problems as time goes through each month of the year(s). Amazingly, gold and silver silver coins, which have increased in cost this season, assumedly showing the continuous debasement of properly diluted foreign exchange and an unmatched world of issues, have drawn a complete opposite and advancing lower in cost. Gold, which lead $1900 oz. in Aug, decreased in cost to the 1500s. Gold got criticized too. A large slice of the drop in jewelry costs, as well as a considerable recession in nearly every other market came right after Fed chairman Ben Bernanke created some conditions come out of his oral cavity on Sept Twenty-first, 2011.

So what energy does Ben have to create nearly every public market on the planet drop like a stone? What did he say to stone the boat so severely? What conditions combined in with the hot air originating from his oral cavity shaken the marketplaces so deeply? And why is it that the antidotes to promote uncertainty and concern -namely gold and silver- dove in cost as well? Many experts seem to determine the reason is that Ben didn't provide the marketplaces what they were anticipating. The marketplaces were anticipating some additional way of Quantitative Reducing (essentially publishing money out of thin air). Yet Ben mostly guaranteed only to move some current money around to synthetically reduce lengthy lasting prices (read decreased home loan rates), and to leave most everything else alone. And in all honesty, I think those many experts are right- to a level. The marketplaces had rallied to the call of this Fed conference and objectives were great. And indeed the Fed's activities did dissatisfy. But that may not be what really set the marketplaces on fire. It may just be that it was not the Fed's activities that likely the apple wagon, but rather the Fed's conditions.

Ben said this:

...there are considerable disadvantage threats to auto viewpoint....

What?? He actually said that? Given his viewers, and the scale of focus on that conference, what Ben said was similar to the Flame Marshall screaming fire in a cinema. If you don't normally adhere to the claims created by the most highly effective man on the planet then you must know that people of that ilk (politicians) don't normally discuss that way. For example, instead of lately saying that the real estate industry is still in the refuse because individuals can't get financial loans, Ben said; "Access to home loan credit ratings remains constrained". That's the normal Fed-speak.

So what exactly happened? Was Ben's oral cavity damaged or something? Maybe he didn't think anyone would observe. He snuck the phrase right in between some standard Fed-speak that was rather tempered. His declaration advised me of those prescribed medication advertisements on TV that tell you how great life will be if you take their tablets.... and between the optimistic claims and the very images they happen to bring up that, oh, by the way, you could die from ingesting their tablets.

Ben lowered in a Mickey. Would the marketplaces notice? They did. And they responded far more than just to the Fed's activities. Ben's conditions dashed the markets' desires. This is where the actual damage was done. The emotional result of the marketplaces to Ben's conditions might best be described in baby's room rhyme type....

The markets

rocked easily to sleep

the results of delicacy recipes loaded deep

by their wealthy dad Ben

who had informed them they need never weep

were anticipating a delightful treat

But instead

ben said

the Fed

would provide them with normal water and bread

What wish of sweets next week? Not a shred!

that loaded the marketplaces with dread

tears were shed

and the marketplaces were sent off to bed

their looks all converted red

I think to the marketplaces, it wasn't just a case of being sent to bed without extra servings of delicacy (i.e. money printing). Rather, Ben seemed to romantic that aspects were so bad even evening meal was up for appeals to. Sacred cow Superman. I mean, Ben's declaration was similar to Iraq's Baghdad Bob (a.k.a. Iraqi Information Reverend Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf during the Beach War), splitting from his common celebration range of doubting that coalition causes were moving into Baghdad, and that the causes were actually near beat... to instead confessing that those aquariums behind him in the camera taken did indeed fit in with the coalition, and they were actually moving unopposed into Baghdad at that very time.

Ben informed the truth! Fed-speak for considerable disadvantage threats to auto viewpoint converts to; we are in very significantly doo doo. It might be at the first try the truth had sputtered out at one of these financial plan events in a while. It's almost like the Fed is providing up, and it took people by shock. To be reasonable, Ben has been suggesting at the truth for a while now in other boards like the Fed's Fitzgibbons Opening peak in Aug, where he confessed that the Govt Source couldn't fix the economy. None-the-less, the marketplaces were not ready for the conditions spoken at this particular the-whole-world-is-watching-with-baited-breath conference. The marketplaces determined, "Gee If BEN is saying it's bad, it must be REALLY bad. And gee, he's not moving out any sweets to take the pain away," and thus the marketplaces were immediately repriced for a reducing, not a increasing, economy.

Why is Ben splitting from the conventional oratory the Govt Source has been putting forth all these years? It may be more decades before we really know, but a best think is that he is dropping his agreement of support from the other Fed governors. We are seeing more and more of this splitting with the celebration range things going on all over the place (like Europe). The Powers-That-Be are not more time discussing with one speech. One might think that it's getting close to every man (slash lady reduce country) for himself time.

But why did gold and silver silver coins get stomped along with most everything else? Simple. The industry is now anticipating deflation. Deflation with a investment D. The current [US / world] economy can be similar to a pierced increase. As lengthy as the increase is connected to a container of hot air (Ben's oral cavity and/or the wind circulation from a high-speed publishing press), it will stay profitable. But cut the tether and the increase WILL completely deflate. Significance, without further incitement, or discuss of incitement, the economy will agreement, or more accurately, keep agreement. Right now the decreasing cost of the standard steel birdwatcher along with a wide range of other signs is informing us the economy is reducing again. A reducing economy is individuals buying less things, leading to companies making less things, leading to the selecting of less workers to create the less things, and in turn resulting in even less need for things, and thus the cost of things comes down. That's cost deflation, and gold/silver are not always defense.

Of course that is a simple description, and many aspects combined together to carry the cost of gold and silver silver coins down so definite. Cyclical aspects, pressured liquidation to increase money to secure other wagers gone wrong, possible market adjustment, as well as the fear that everyone else will sell their gold prior to you -to name a few- all may have provided to the surprising drop in gold and silver silver coins costs. The question now is; what does the road forward look like for gold and silver?

The answer is; nothing has modified. Nothing has modified. The report centered economical world we increased up with is still failing. Assurance in the program is still deteriorating. Govt authorities are all the surrounding to prevent a day of reckoning that is sure to come. Money has been given that can never be compensated returning in complete. There's only two methods this can end, and both methods portend well for valuable metals; either governments will keep list money to service old financial loans and take out new ones, or, governments will standard and the financial loans will never be returned. It's really that easy, and you don't need to be an economist to understand that any more than you need to be a meteorologist to know when you are being rained on.

Greece is in the front lights at this time to see if they will standard. Either Portugal gets more financial loans (that can never be compensated back) -that's strategy A- or the nation will standard -that's strategy B-. You will see that both strategy A and strategy B have the same greatest outcome. In The united states, it's difficult to believe we will voluntarily opt for strategy B though. Political figures are managing that option, and politicians know they will be in serious issue with the voters if they close the lid on on loan instalments. One of the best quotations I've ever observed was mentioned by Luxembourg's Excellent Reverend Jean-Claude Juncker: "We all know what to do, but we don't know how to get re-elected once we have done it."

So strategy A, continuous to borrow-print-spend (and more quantitative easing), will likely keep increase costs for gold/silver just as it has done for the past several years, as water-downed foreign exchange get re-priced with regards to gold and silver silver coins. Plan B could be activated by a wide range of nations though, and if so we would likely see the most large rejuvinating of financial debt in the record around the planet get fire (that would be financial deflation, which causes cost deflation). A house of cards would drop, making many individuals with far less money almost instantaneously as the derivates market flattened, overleveraged banking organizations went split, money market and retirement residing resources spent in those organizations took a bloodbath, and the multi-trillion money types market imploded. The music would stop and everyone would battle for a chair. With the producing significantly decreased money provide, most inventory and financial commitment costs would be cost far decreased. However, traditionally, even though gold and silver silver coins usually drop in deflationary times, they drop in cost less comparative to the cost of other aspects. Well. Perhaps this is why gold/silver have traditionally been a means of protecting success.

It's not a very image either way, but remarkably, for the person the safety measures to prevent yourself from the producing disorder of either strategy A or strategy B are similar. Let's look at that mentioned suggested record of safety measures again:

Lighten up on investments (stocks and bonds)

Buy gold and silver silver coins (and perhaps gold exploration stocks)

Buy food

Become a farmer

Stock up on the basics

Keep some money on hand

Take some protection precautions

Buy a super-high gas usage automobile (electric car, multiple, power bike, etc.)

Conduct a "disaster determination test"

Ok. Now you could say something like; "Gee, why fear about my gas usage if strategy B requires hold? Because in a deflation some aspects drop in cost but others don't. Even though need for many aspects cures up (people either don't have money or they delay for a further drop in cost before buying), the provide of other aspects tends to dry up as development falls. If less gas is being created due to the financial problems then petrol may increase in cost. Or, if meals plants fall brief due to rainwater (like, say, ummm, THIS year), then meals can get very expensive. Plus, we have to eat. We have to drive to work. But we don't have to buy a brand new car or iPhone.

So are we going to strategy B? The truth is we are already getting changing amounts of both strategy A and strategy B. We are on a coaster of costs of raw materials going up and then going down. At the end of the day perhaps all we can do as people is create programs for ever larger amounts of both programs A and B. Significance, we will likely keep see both blowing up and deflation as the coaster journey carries on and governments and traders battle to observed in the right route. Movements and government involvement are the only certainties. At the end of the day, strategy B (massive financial debt standard and producing deflation) seems unavoidable. But that doesn't mean we won't see hyperinflation first. It's just a issue of how much inflationary money publishing we get before we quit and take the truth that the planet as a whole got too far into financial debt, and that more financial debts are not the solution. The more time we delay the more agonizing it will be, which is why the Too-Big-To-Fail disagreement eventually does not keep normal water. Perhaps it is in acknowledging our powerlessness over this situation that we become motivated. In realistic conditions we have to deal with this global issue on a local stage. The above record of safety measures should help journey out any climate.

Which delivers me to another factor to end this article. I believe it is an error to think of this economical and financial problems as an separated event. It may be best to take a natural strategy in watching the problems around the planet. Can it be chance that our world is so flooded with every kind of problems these days? We see changes in the earth, the environment, the economy... and, in individuals. Is individual instinct evolving? We are acknowledging more and more that our old systems of relating to ourselves need to be modified. Many individuals think a modify of age groups is upon us, and that among all our problems and issues we are pregnancy to quantity of individual awareness. Most people I discuss to experience a switch in the wind circulation to one level or another. This is an occasion to be conscious and aware. Perhaps more so than whenever in our life. It's really not business as regular.

This is where our actual energy as a competition of people may lie. If we believe that the lengthy run is not set in tangible, but is more like wet tangible, we may be able to shape it. Our ideas, conditions, and activities may have more impact than we realize. Not actually in the daily unfolding of world activities, but at an improved, more archetypal stage. This is an occasion therefore to stay, for lack of better conditions, positive. We may be residing in some of the most exciting and transformative times of all society. So regardless of what the months and decades carry us, let's not anxiety and provides in to fear. That never performs. Instead show love and sympathy for our others who live nearby. Think of now on the earth as a evaluate. If we are being examined, let's perform ourselves -each and every one of us- in a way we can look returning on and be satisfied with our actions.

Americans can take a cue from European nations as to what one possible upcoming looks like. Many Eurpean people are being required to modify to a very different way of life. But I say if aspects go bitter for us too, let's take whatever lemon we are worked and create soda and pop. Meanwhile, it seems suggested to move out of report centered resources (stocks, ties, etc.) and toward actual resources like town area, meals, tangibles, etc. And yes, even though gold and silver silver coins could drop further in the temporary, gold and silver silver coins are a shop of value, and should be part of a 'complete breakfast' of obtaining ones upcoming in not sure times.

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